Globalization and the Butterfly Effect

Globalization and the Butterfly Effect

By John Edwards

The butterfly effect concept has become important in the finance world as globalization continues to increase and capital markets connect. Volatility in one small area of the international markets can grow rapidly and bleed into other markets, and a hiccup in one corner of the international markets can have global consequences. Improvements in technology and wider access to the Internet has increased the degree to which international markets influence each other. This has led to more episodes of extreme market volatility.

The butterfly effect has become well-known in popular culture, and the concept has clear applications to finance. It and chaos theory may provide a partial explanation for the unpredictability of capital markets.

Origin and Meaning of Butterfly Effect

The phrase “the butterfly effect” was first coined during a scientific meeting in 1972. Scientist Edward Lorenz gave a talk on his work regarding weather prediction models. The phrase suggests that the flap of a butterfly’s wings in Japan could create a small change in the atmosphere that might eventually lead to a tornado in Texas.

Lorenz studied how small differences in initial values led to large differences in weather models at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. In 1961, he had entered an initial condition in a weather model as 0.506, rather than the precise number of 0.506127, which resulted in a completely different and unexpected weather pattern. In 1963, he wrote a paper on this concept, titled “Deterministic Nonperiodic Flow.” The butterfly effect concept shows how difficult it is to predict dynamic systems, such as weather and financial markets. Study of the butterfly effect has led to advances in chaos theory.

Application of Chaos Theory to Markets

Capital markets go through alternating periods of calm and storminess. However, they are not always chaotic, and the shift between calm and chaos is often sudden and unpredictable. Some believe that these concepts of chaos theory can be used to understand how financial markets operate.

Markets tend to grow bubbles that eventually pop with drastic consequences. Financial bubbles often grow because of positive feedback. When investors make money during a rise in the financial markets, other observers think the investors must have made a smart decision, which leads the observers to invest their own money in the markets. The result is more buying and stock prices going higher. The positive feedback loop leads to prices beyond any logical or justifiable level. The loop eventually ends, and the last investors in are left hanging with the worst positions.

The same concept can explain volatile bear markets. The markets can suddenly shift due to outside factors, which causes investors to pay attention only to negative news. Initial selling leads to more selling as market participants liquidate their positions. The negative feedback loop tends to accelerate quickly, often resulting in a market full of undervalued stocks.

Fractals and the Markets

Prominent scientist Benoit Mandelbrot applied his work in fractals in nature to financial markets. He found that examples of chaos in nature, such as the shape of shorelines or clouds, often have a high degree of order. These fractal shapes can also explain chaotic systems, including financial markets. Mandelbrot noted that asset prices can jump suddenly with no apparent cause.

Many in the markets tend to dismiss the extreme events that occur less than 5% of the time. Mandelbrot argued that these outliers are important and play a significant role in financial market movements. Traditional portfolio theory tends to underestimate how often these high-volatility events occur. While his fractals cannot predict price movements, he argued that they could create a more realistic picture of market risks.

Overview

Before we look at these forces, we should sketch out how exchange rate movements affect a nation’s trading relationships with other nations. A higher currency makes a country’s exports more expensive and imports cheaper in foreign markets. A lower currency makes a country’s exports cheaper and its imports more expensive in foreign markets. A higher exchange rate can be expected to lower the country’s balance of trade, while a lower exchange rate would increase it.

Differentials in Inflation

As a general rule, a country with a consistently lower inflation rate exhibits a rising currency value, as its purchasing power increases relative to other currencies. During the last half of the 20th century, the countries with low inflation included Japan, Germany and Switzerland, while the U.S. and Canada achieved low inflation only later. Those countries with higher inflation typically see depreciation in their currency in relation to the currencies of their trading partners. This is also usually accompanied by higher interest rates.

Current-Account Deficits

The current account is the balance of trade between a country and its trading partners, reflecting all payments between countries for goods, services, interest and dividends. A deficit in the current account shows the country is spending more on foreign trade than it is earning, and that it is borrowing capital from foreign sources to make up the deficit. In other words, the country requires more foreign currency than it receives through sales of exports, and it supplies more of its own currency than foreigners demand for its products. The excess demand for foreign currency lowers the country’s exchange rate until domestic goods and services are cheap enough for foreigners, and foreign assets are too expensive to generate sales for domestic interests.

Public Debt

Countries will engage in large-scale deficit financing to pay for public sector projects and governmental funding. While such activity stimulates the domestic economy, nations with large public deficits and debts are less attractive to foreign investors. The reason? A large debt encourages inflation, and if inflation is high, the debt will be serviced and ultimately paid off with cheaper real dollars in the future.

In the worst case scenario, a government may print money to pay part of a large debt, but increasing the money supply inevitably causes inflation. Moreover, if a government is not able to service its deficit through domestic means (selling domestic bonds, increasing the money supply), then it must increase the supply of securities for sale to foreigners, thereby lowering their prices. Finally, a large debt may prove worrisome to foreigners if they believe the country risks defaulting on its obligations. Foreigners will be less willing to own securities denominated in that currency if the risk of default is great. For this reason, the country’s debt rating (as determined by Moody’s or Standard & Poor’s, for example) is a crucial determinant of its exchange rate.

Terms of Trade

A ratio comparing export prices to import prices, the terms of trade is related to current accounts and the balance of payments. If the price of a country’s exports rises by a greater rate than that of its imports, its terms of trade have favorably improved. Increasing terms of trade shows greater demand for the country’s exports. This, in turn, results in rising revenues from exports, which provides increased demand for the country’s currency (and an increase in the currency’s value). If the price of exports rises by a smaller rate than that of its imports, the currency’s value will decrease in relation to its trading partners.

The Bottom Line

The exchange rate of the currency in which a portfolio holds the bulk of its investments determines that portfolio’s real return. A declining exchange rate obviously decreases the purchasing power of income and capital gains derived from any returns. Moreover, the exchange rate influences other income factors such as interest rates, inflation and even capital gains from domestic securities. While exchange rates are determined by numerous complex factors that often leave even the most experienced economists flummoxed, investors should still have some understanding of how currency values and exchange rates play an important role in the rate of return on their investments.

 

What Is Globalization?

Globalization is defined as a process that, based on international strategies, aims to expand business operations on a worldwide level, and was precipitated by the facilitation of global communications due to technological advancements, and socioeconomic, political and environmental developments.

The goal of globalization is to provide organizations a superior competitive position with lower operating costs, to gain greater numbers of products, services and consumers. This approach to competition is gained via diversification of resources, the creation and development of new investment opportunities by opening up additional markets, and accessing new raw materials and resources. Diversification of resources is a business strategy that increases the variety of business products and services within various organizations. Diversification strengthens institutions by lowering organizational risk factors, spreading interests in different areas, taking advantage of market opportunities, and acquiring companies both horizontal and vertical in nature.

Industrialized or developed nations are specific countries with a high level of economic development and meet certain socioeconomic criteria based on economic theory, such as gross domestic product (GDP), industrialization and human development index (HDI) as defined by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the United Nations (UN) and the World Trade Organization (WTO). Using these definitions, some industrialized countries in 2016 are: United Kingdom, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Japan, Luxembourg, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland and the United States.

Components of Globalization

The components of globalization include GDP, industrialization and the Human Development Index (HDI). The GDP is the market value of all finished goods and services produced within a country’s borders in a year, and serves as a measure of a country’s overall economic output. Industrialization is a process which, driven by technological innovation, effectuates social change and economic development by transforming a country into a modernized industrial, or developed nation. The Human Development Index comprises three components: a country’s population’s life expectancy, knowledge and education measured by the adult literacy, and income.

The degree to which an organization is globalized and diversified has bearing on the strategies that it uses to pursue greater development and investment opportunities.

Beneficial Effects

Some economists have a positive outlook regarding the net effects of globalization on economic growth. These effects have been analyzed over the years by several studies attempting to measure the impact of globalization on various nations’ economies using variables such as trade, capital flows and their openness, GDP per capita, foreign direct investment (FDI) and more. These studies examined the effects of several components of globalization on growth using time series cross sectional data on trade, FDI and portfolio investment. Although they provide an analysis of individual components of globalization on economic growth, some of the results are inconclusive or even contradictory. However, overall, the findings of those studies seem to be supportive of the economists’ positive position, instead of the one held by the public and non-economist view.

Trade among nations via the use of comparative advantage promotes growth, which is attributed to a strong correlation between the openness to trade flows and the affect on economic growth and economic performance. Additionally there is a strong positive relation between capital flows and their impact on economic growth.

Foreign Direct Investment’s impact on economic growth has had a positive growth effect in wealthy countries and an increase in trade and FDI, resulting in higher growth rates. Empirical research examining the effects of several components of globalization on growth, using time series and cross sectional data on trade, FDI and portfolio investment, found that a country tends to have a lower degree of globalization if it generates higher revenues from trade taxes. Further evidence indicates that there is a positive growth-effect in countries that are sufficiently rich, as are most of the developed nations.

The World Bank reports that integration with global capital markets can lead to disastrous effects, without sound domestic financial systems in place. Furthermore, globalized countries have lower increases in government outlays and taxes, and lower levels of corruption in their governments.

One of the potential benefits of globalization is to provide opportunities for reducing macroeconomic volatility on output and consumption via diversification of risk.

Harmful Effects

Non-economists and the wide public expect the costs associated with globalization to outweigh the benefits, especially in the short-run. Less wealthy countries from those among the industrialized nations may not have the same highly-accentuated beneficial effect from globalization as more wealthy countries, measured by GDP per capita etc. Although free trade increases opportunities for international trade, it also increases the risk of failure for smaller companies that cannot compete globally. Additionally, free trade may drive up production and labor costs, including higher wages for more skilled workforce.

Domestic industries in some countries may be endangered due to comparative or absolute advantage of other countries in specific industries. Another possible danger and harmful effect is the overuse and abuse of natural resources to meet new higher demands in the production of goods.

The Bottom Line

One of the major potential benefits of globalization is to provide opportunities for reducing macroeconomic volatility on output and consumption via diversification of risk. The overall evidence of the globalization effect on macroeconomic volatility of output indicates that although direct effects are ambiguous in theoretical models, financial integration helps in a nation’s production base diversification, and leads to an increase in specialization of production. However, the specialization of production, based on the concept of comparative advantage, can also lead to higher volatility in specific industries within an economy and society of a nation. As time passes, successful companies, independent of size, will be the ones that are part of the global economy.

 

Globalization and the Butterfly Effect

By John Edwards

The butterfly effect concept has become important in the finance world as globalization continues to increase and capital markets connect. Volatility in one small area of the international markets can grow rapidly and bleed into other markets, and a hiccup in one corner of the international markets can have global consequences. Improvements in technology and wider access to the Internet has increased the degree to which international markets influence each other. This has led to more episodes of extreme market volatility.

The butterfly effect has become well-known in popular culture, and the concept has clear applications to finance. It and chaos theory may provide a partial explanation for the unpredictability of capital markets.

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