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The Potential Emergence of Another Superpower



When asked abstractly whether the US should try to maintain its role as the only superpower a plurality or slight majority says that it should. But when asked specifically about the prospect of the European Union or China becoming a comparable power Americans are remarkably sanguine.

When the Chicago Council asked in 2006 whether the US should "make active efforts to ensure that no other country becomes a superpower," 49% said that it should, down from a slight majority of 52% in 2004. Similarly, only a slight majority (55% in 2006 and 50% in 2004) said that "maintaining superior military power worldwide" should be a very important foreign policy goal, ranking seventh out of fourteen goals in both 2006 and 2004.[10]

When asked about sharing military dominance on a global scale, half of Americans prefer to maintain the United States' status as the sole superpower, but this is not strongly felt as the position is rather easily abandoned. In an October 2005 Pew poll a plurality (50%) said that that in the future US policies should "try to keep it so America is the only military superpower." However, only 23% said that this should be the policy even if it "risks alienating our principal allies," while 22% would not want to pursue this policy in that situation. Thirty-five percent initially take the position that it would be acceptable "if China, another country, or the European Union became as militarily powerful as the US."[11]

The prospect of the European Union becoming a parallel superpower elicits a plurality positive view. The German Marshall Fund in May 2005 asked whether they agreed more that "the US should remain the only superpower" or "the EU should become a superpower like the US," Only 36% said that the US should remain the only superpower. Rather a plurality of 47% said that the EU should become a superpower.[12]

The prospect of China rivaling the US elicits more concern but most are still not clearly opposed. For example when asked by the Chicago Council in July 2006 about the possibility of China catching up with the US economically only one in three said this would be mostly bad. A majority (54%) said this would be equally good and bad. However the development of Chinese military power is something that does concern Americans. [See China:聽China's Growing Economic and Military Power]

Multilateral Cooperation and International Institutions

A very strong majority favors a US role in the world that puts a greater emphasis on US participation in multilateral efforts to deal with international problems and on a cooperative approach wherein the US is quite attentive to the views of other countries not just US interests. Very strong majorities favor the US working through international institutions (especially the United Nations) and support making international institutions more powerful. Strong majorities favor international law and strengthening international judicial institutions. Americans support US participation in collective security structures and are reluctant to use military force except as part of multilateral efforts. A large majority favors the US using multilateral approaches for dealing with terrorism, addressing international environmental issues, and giving aid for economic development.

So if the majority feels that the US is too domineering and hegemonic, but does not want the US to withdraw from the world, what does it want? The answer is actually fairly clear: Americans strongly support the US putting greater emphasis on actively participating in multilateral efforts to solve international problems.

In a July 2006 Chicago Council poll, respondents were presented three options for America's role in the world. Only 10% embraced the idea that "as the sole remaining superpower, the US should continue to be the preeminent world leader in solving international problems." But just 12% chose the option that "the US should withdraw from most efforts to solve international problems." However, an overwhelming 75% endorsed the view that "the US should do its share in efforts to solve international problems together with other countries," This was nearly the same level of support as in June 2004 and a larger majority than when the Chicago Council asked the same question in June 2002. In October 2006 WPO asked the same question, but with a different preface: "I would like you to imagine that you heard three Congressional candidates make the following statements." Seventy-two percent said the candidate proposing that the US do its share together with other countries would be most likely to get their support.[1]

As mentioned above, Gallup has repeatedly asked whether the US "in trying to solve international problems" should take "the leading role...a major role but not the leading role...a minor role, or take no role at all" Most recently (February 2007), a 58% majority wanted the US to take a major role, but only 15 percent said the US should take "the leading role". However, support for the US having a considerable role far outweighs the preference for the US having a smaller role: just 21% felt the US should have a "minor role" while only 4% said it should have "no role at all." This majority favoring the US taking a major role has been present since the question was first asked in February 2001, and has been growing since 2005.

Similarly over the past several years, Pew has asked respondents what kind of leadership role they would like to see the US play in the world. In October 2005, a strong majority of 74% said that the US should play "a shared leadership role," while just 12% felt that the US should be "the single world leader." These numbers have remained largely consistent, with the largest majority of 79% believing that the US should have a shared leadership role coming in October 2001, in the immediate aftermath of the September 11th attacks. At that time, only 3% embraced the isolationist position that the US "shouldn't play any leadership role," growing a bit in in recent years, to 9% in July 2004 and 10% in October 2005.

In all years, those who opted for a shared leadership role were also asked if they wanted the US to be the most active, or about as active as other leading nations. In October 2005 47% of the total sample preferred the US be "about as active" while 25% said it should be the most active of the leading nations." When Pew asked this question in previous years, it elicited similar responses, reaching the greatest preference for the US to be "the most active" in October 2001 (33%) and June 2003 (30%).[2]

Americans show strong support for working in conjunction with allies. The GMF Transatlantic Trends poll from June 2006 showed 91% agreeing (65% strongly) that Ў°when our country acts on national security issues, it is critical that we do so with our closest allies.Ў± The Los Angeles Times asked respondents to choose between two statements: "The United States has a responsibility to fight violations of international law and aggression around the world, even without the cooperation of its allies;" and "the United States should work only in a coordinated effort with its allies to fight violations of international law and aggression around the world." In January 2006, 63% said the US should work only with its allies, up slightly from September 13-14, 2001, when 59% took this position.

Large majorities say that the US should take into account the interests of other countries. Most recently, in September 2006 90% said it was very (49%) or somewhat (41%) important to US foreign policy to "[take] into account the views and interests of other countries" (Public Agenda). In Pew's December 2006 poll, 82% agreed that, "In deciding on its foreign policies, the U.S. should take into account the views of its major allies." This was the same as levels found by Newsweek in March 2003. In June 2002, the Chicago Council found 61% saying that, "In general, in responding to international crises...the United States should...not take action alone, if it does not have the support of its allies." [3]

Further, when the US considers whether to join an international agreement, a majority is likely to take into account what most other countries have chosen to do. In November 2006 WPO asked, "If a large majority of countries in the world have signed an agreement on how to address a major global issue and the United States is considering whether to sign, how much should the United States take into account the fact that a majority of countries have signed the agreement? Sixty-eight percent said either "a lot" (31%) or some (37%); only 27% said "just a little" (16%) or "not at all" (11%).

On the other hand, Americans do think that sometimes the US must act on its interests irrespective of the views of other nations. In the September 2006 Public Agenda poll 79% said it was important to do "what we think is best for our own interests even if other nations oppose us." [3a]

When a dichotomy is posed between taking into account the views of others against simply acting on US interests, a preference for the cooperative approach prevails, though by varying margins. Asked by NBC/Wall Street Journal whether US government leaders "should generally try to consult and work with leaders of other countries before acting" when it comes to foreign policy, or "do what they think is best without worrying about other countries' interests," 73% chose the former. Asked twice in 2003 by Newsweek, overwhelming majorities (78% in March and September) supported working "with major allies and through international organizations" to achieve foreign policy goals, as opposed to extremely small numbers who favored the US "acting mainly on our own." In July 2004, Pew asked how the US should determine its foreign policy, and found a plurality (49%) saying it should "strongly take into account the interests of its allies" as compared to 37% saying it "should be based mostly on the national interests of the US." In December 2004, a Pew poll found 53% agreeing that "In foreign policy, the U.S. (United States) should take into account the interests of its allies even if it means making compromises with them" as opposed to 37% agreeing that "In foreign policy, the U.S. should follow its own national interests even when its allies strongly disagree." [3b]

Finally, as discussed elsewhere Americans are generally quite reluctant to take military action without multilateral approval and/or allied participation except in a small range of circumstances.


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