Forecast of the cyclical aggravation

of the military threat

Above, we have analyzed the contradictions of global economic development and the subjective factors embodied in the Ukrainian catastrophe. In this chapter, the results of a system analysis of the superposition of cyclical fluctuations in economic and political activity are superimposed on this content.

Since the substantive analysis has revealed the objective interest of the U.S. in escalating military and political tensions, as well as its subjective orientation toward using Ukraine as a tool of inciting a war in Europe against Russia, a mathematical analysis of economic cycles is used to assess the probability of this particular threat in the temporal aspect. Of course, U.S. geopoliticians can unleash a war in some other place, which they actually do all the time in all corners of the globe. At the same time, given the global nature of the economic crisis, the war intended to resolve its driving contradictions is bound to be global. It doesn't have to take the form of hostilities between superpowers.

 

Fig. 7. The global crisis

as a combination of cyclical crises.

(Source: Akayev A. A., Sadovnichy V.A.)

But in the essence of international political relations and the scale of consequences, it will be a war analogous to the Cold War between the capitalist and socialist empires. Especially since this confrontation did not end, as the PRC showed a new model of the socialist way, picking up the baton from the USSR.

The superposition of centennial capital accumulation, long Kondratieff cycles, Kuznets cycles of accumulation and business cycles indicates that the world is going through an extremely dangerous moment of coincidence of the lower turning points of all these cycles, which creates a dangerous resonance of the disturbances typical for each of these cycles.

Mathematical modeling of superposition of the above cycles indicates the passage of the extreme point of economic activity decline in 2014-2016[164]. The same period is associated with a maximum risk of aggravation of political tension and struggle for leadership. In the previous periods, the downward waves of Kondratieff cycles also were associated with serious crises that resulted in disturbances, socio-political conflicts and wars.

Analysis of the long cycles of economic and political dynamics shows that the most likely period of commencement of major international conflicts involving the U.S. and its satellites against Russia is 2016-2018, and their escalation could continue until the middle of the next decade (Fig. 7)[165]. The likely intensification of international political and economic tensions is evidenced by the results of modeling the superposition of economic cycles with a different period of oscillations, indicating a high probability of a dangerous resonance effect of coincident cyclical crises in the near future.

As explained above, the modern period corresponds to the stage of transition of the new technological order from the birth phase to the growth phase, when the establishment of its technological trajectory is completed and the modernization of the economy on its basis begins. It is during this period that technology changes entail changes in the structure of international relations.

The countries that have ascended earlier than others the wave of growth of the new technological paradigm acquire a competitive advantage in the world market and begin to press former leaders, who have to make great efforts to overcome the overaccumulation of capital in obsolete production and technology structures. The fight described above for dominating the world market unfolds between the new and the old leader of technical and economic development, which leads to an increase in international tension and provokes military and political conflicts that until now led to world wars.

It is precisely this period that begins at the present time, which will last until the beginning of the next decade, when the growth trajectories of the new technological paradigm will finally form and the world economy will rise to the sixth long wave of growth based on it[166]. It is at this time that the old ones are coming to an end, and new life cycles of infrastructural innovations are beginning (Fig. 8).

 

Fig. 8. Diffusion of innovation along the rise of Kondratieff economic activity cycles.

(Source: Akayev A. A., Sadovnichy V.A.)

 

 

At the same time, according to the dynamics of centennial cycles of accumulation and scenarios of world economic paradigms succession, an aggravation of international military and political conflicts is expected. According to the above-mentioned forecast by V. Pantin, their first peak is expected in 2016-2018[167]. We should note that by that time a legitimate change of power would have occurred in Ukraine, following the results of the presidential elections planned in accordance with the Constitution for the spring of 2015. Now there is no doubt that secret services of the U.S. and its NATO allies planned another orange revolution, entailing overthrow of Yanukovych and transfer of power to their agents, Poroshenko and Yatsenyuk. If it were not for Ukraine's disruption into the political crisis in early 2014, the transfer of power to American proté gé s would have happened legally, and today it would have naturally found itself under the control of NATO, legitimately pursuing an anti-Russian policy, barring the operation of the Black Sea Fleet and provoking interethnic conflicts in the Crimea in order to eliminate pro-Russian public organizations and mop up Russian influence in the southeastern regions. Russia would have been in a much worse situation than now, after reunification with the Crimea and the establishment of an illegitimate regime in Kiev, the war crimes of which against its own people doom the Ukraine seized by pro-American neo-Nazis to disaster and disintegration.

The U.S. failed to wrest control of Ukraine in a legitimate way, and had to lay its cards on the table ahead of time, resorting to gross interference in the internal affairs of Ukraine and linking itself to the criminal Nazi regime. The disguise had to be thrown off, which dramatically weakened the U.S. position in the world community due to the growing distrust toward American politicians who were spotted organizing the coup d'é tat and supporting neo-Nazis. The Ukrainian crisis began a year earlier than was planned in Washington.

Had Yanukovych signed the Association Agreement with the EU, everything would have happened a year and a half later, at the time of the next presidential election. By that time, the EU's mechanisms of managing the Ukrainian economic, external and defense policy envisaged by this Agreement would have been activated. The Ukrainian-Polish-Lithuanian battalions, he formation of which is discussed in Kiev, would have already been established and deployed on the borders with Russia. The procedures for joint actions by European and Ukrainian armed forces in the settlement of regional conflicts would have been perfected.

 Although the Agreement stipulates the obligation of Ukraine to act in these conflicts under the leadership of the EU, as well as to follow its foreign and defense policy, it is obvious that the real organization of military operations would have been carried out by NATO under Washington's command.

There is no doubt that at the time of the presidential elections in the spring of 2015, the same technologies for replacing Yanukovych with a U.S. proté gé would have been used, as during the coup d'é tat this winter. The only difference is that the change of power would have occurred in a relatively legitimate way, which would have excluded Russia's ability to help anti-fascist resistance, not to mention reunification with the Crimea. Like now, the U.S. would have formed a government and law enforcement agencies in Kiev from among their agents, who would have been used to join Ukraine to NATO and drive out the Russian Black Sea Fleet from the Crimea. Russia would have been opposed not by Nazi gunmen gangs, but by legitimate Ukrainian-European troops relying on the entire military power of NATO. The legitimate Ukrainian government guided by the U.S. would have severed cooperation with Russia in the defense industry, conducting an equally unbridled anti-Russian campaign in the media and forcible Ukrainization of the South-East of Ukraine.

The social and economic catastrophe that has engulfed Ukraine, along with the growing chaos in this territory, do not correspond to the goals of Russia which is vitally interested in a prosperous and successfully developing Ukraine, an integral part of the Russian World connected with Russia technologically, economically and spiritually. The catastrophic scenario could have been avoided, had Yanukovych not taken the cue of American and European emissaries, and had he defended the state from the Nazi insurrection and prevented the coup d'é tat. However, for the U.S. this would be tantamount to a defeat in the long anti-Russian campaign that they waged in Ukraine throughout the entire post-Soviet period. Therefore, everything possible and legally unthinkable was done using huge political, informational and financial resources to arrange the coup d'é tat in Kiev and transfer power over Ukraine to the pro-American agents of influence.

The U.S. risks paying for the Ukrainian venture with its ideological and political leadership. This leadership is perceived as a threat to political stability not only in the CIS, but also in Latin America, Asia and Africa. Only people who are naїve and far removed from real politics continue to perceive the U.S. as a bulwark of democracy and peace. Leaders of independent states are increasingly apprehensive of foreign policy of the U.S. that considers the entire globe to be the sphere of its interests, and impudently interferes in the internal affairs of other countries up to arrangement of coups and civil wars, defying international law.

At one of the international events, Cristina Ferná ndez de Kirchner, the President of Argentina, asked the participants, " In what country is a coup d'é tat impossible? " And then she answered, " In the U.S., because there is no American embassy there." This joke reflects a real understanding of the policy of the U.S. as the international aggressor which appropriated to itself the right to sway the destinies of the peoples of the world.

Progressively more of these peoples, or rather their leaders, perceive this policy as a threat against which one needs to defend oneself. They also comprehend the reasons that incite the U.S. leadership to new ventures with the aim of destabilizing various countries and regions that they do not control.

Currently, the reproduction of the U.S. financial system has reached an exacerbated mode, as the exponential growth of its public debt and financial pyramids of derivatives testifies to the approach of its self-destruction. The gap between real assets and their virtual derivatives, which was considered the main cause of the global financial crisis, has grown significantly since that time (Fig. 9).

 

Fig. 9. Growth of the U.S. national debt

 

The U.S. is trying to postpone as much as possible the moment of the collapse of its financial system and jump it over to a new long wave of growth before its onset. To do this, it is trying to shift the burden of servicing its obligations to other countries, or even to downright write them off. In order to maintain control over petrodollars, the U.S. unleashed wars in the Middle East, having plunged its recent partners into a state of chaos and helplessness. To control the narcodollars, it has occupied Afghanistan. However, the main goal of this expanding aggression is Europe. Following the geopolitical tradition, the U.S. oligarchy relies on unleashing a war of European countries with Russia in the hope that it will win this war again, as has already happened twice. It was for this purpose that the U.S. secret services committed a coup d'é tat in Ukraine, establishing an anti-Russian Nazi regime there.

By stirring up the EU against Russia with the help of Nazi provocateurs who usurped power in Ukraine, the U.S. is trying to weaken both sides and establish its control over them. In the EU, by imposing a free trade zone on conditions favorable to American capital. In Russia, by destabilizing the internal political situation and organizing the coup d'é tat with subsequent dismemberment of the country. This will allow the U.S. to establish control over Central Asia as well. By subordinating most of the Eurasian continent to its interests, the U.S. will strengthen its capabilities and weaken the capabilities of China. In such a way, U.S. geopoliticians expect to retain global leadership. The blow to Russia plays a pivotal role in this plan. At the same time, the use of Ukraine to this end makes the U.S. position " win-win", as the entire operation is done by someone else's hands, while the entire damage is taken by the Russian World, which is being destroyed from within.

From 2017 on, a new electoral cycle will begin in the U.S. which, apparently, will be based on Russophobia as the ideological basis of the U.S.-fomented world war. By that time, the crisis condition of the U.S. financial system might manifest itself in the reduction of budget expenditure, depreciation of the dollar, as well as in a tangible deterioration in the standard of living. The external U.S. aggression may get bogged down in the Middle East, fail in Afghanistan and Iraq. The pressure of domestic problems and crises in foreign policy, on the one hand, will provoke an increase in the aggressiveness of the U.S. leadership, weakening its position on the other hand. As V. Pantin argues, in case of its intellectual, economic and military mobilization, Russia has a chance not to lose away the conflicts of 2015-2018, since the U.S. and its satellites will not yet be ready for an overt aggression[168].

According to the same forecasts, the most dangerous period for Russia will come in the early 2020s, when the technological re-equipment of developed countries and China will begin, and the U.S. and other Western countries will emerge from the depression of 2008-2018 and make a new technological leap. Exactly in the period of 2021-2025 Russia can again lag dramatically in terms of technology and economy, which will devalue its defensive potential and dramatically increase internal social and ethnic conflicts, as was the case with the USSR in the late 1980s. U.S. analysts from the CIA and other agencies directly rely on the collapse of Russia from within after 2020 due to internal social and ethnic conflicts initiated from the outside, using the problems of social and regional inequality along with decrease in living standards in our country. To achieve this goal, the U.S. has been consistently nurturing its " fifth column" among the Russian political, business and intellectual elite, reportedly allocating up to $10 billion per year for its creation[169]. The recent appointment of John Tefft, the most famous organizer of " color revolutions" and coups d'é tat in the post-Soviet space, as the new U.S. ambassador to Russia, also testifies to the same thing.

 

Start of the war

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