КАЧЕСТВЕННЫЙ ИНДЕКС ВИДОВ ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКОЙ ДЕЯТЕЛЬНОСТИ

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ХАРАКТЕРИСТИКИ КАЧЕСТВЕННЫХ ВИДОВ ДЕЯТЕЛЬНОСТИ:

• новые знания с высокой рыночной ценностью;

• крутая кривая производительности;

• быстрый рост объема производства;

• стремительный технологический прогресс;

• активная научно-исследовательская деятельность;

• поощряется обучение на практике;

• несовершенная информация;

• инвестиции поступают в крупном объеме/неделимы (лекарства);

• конкуренция несовершенная, но динамичная;

• высокий уровень заработной платы;

• возможности для экономии на масштабе и диверсификации производства;

• высокая концентрация отраслей;

• высокие ставки: высокие барьеры на вход и выход;

• связи и синергия;

• инновационные продукты;

• стандартные предпосылки неоклассической теории неприменимы

ХАРАКТЕРИСТИКИ НЕКАЧЕСТВЕННЫХ ВИДОВ ДЕЯТЕЛЬНОСТИ:

• знания старые, не имеющие рыночной ценности;

• кривая производительности пологая;

• рост производительности низкий;

• уровень технологического прогресса низкий;

• научно-исследовательская деятельность на низком уровне;

• требуется невысокий уровень мастерства или образования;

• совершенная информация;

• инвестиции можно делить (инструменты для изготовления бейсбольных мячей);

• совершенная конкуренция;

• низкий уровень заработной платы;

• низкий уровень экономии на масштабах или его отсутствие/риск убывающей отдачи;

• слабоконцентрированная отрасль промышленности;

• низкие ставки: низкий барьер на вход и выход;

• природное сырье;

• небольшое количество связей и синергических эффектов;

• инновационные процессы или отсутствие инноваций;

• предпосылки неоклассической теории применимы

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[1]Стагфляция = стагнация + инфляция; этот термин изобретен для описания периодов упадка, в которые происходит высокая инфляция.

[2]Рикардо (1772–1823) был английским политическим экономистом, который защищал международную теорию торговли на основании сравнительного преимущества: по ней страна должна была специализироваться в том, в чем она относительно наиболее эффективна (наименее неэффективна) по сравнению со своим торговым партнером. Его книга «Принципы политической экономии и налогообложения» вышла в 1817 году.

[3]О важности эмуляции см.: Hont Istvan. Jealousy of Trade: International Competition and the Nation-State in Historical Perspective. Cambridge, Mass., 2005.

[4]Ее первыми авторами были Торстейн Веблен (1857–1929) и Йозеф Шумпетер (1883–1950); авторы ее современной версии — Ричард Нельсон и Сидни Уинтер (An Evolutionary Theory of Economic Change. Cambridge, Mass., 1982), а также Джованни Доси с соавторами (Technical Change and Economic Theory. London, 1988).

[5]Шумпетер Й.А. История экономического анализа. T. 2. СПб.: Экономическая школа, 2001. С. 620.

[6]См. Heaton Herbert. A Scholar in Action. Edwin F. Gay, Cambridge, Mass., 1952; Cruikshank Jeffrey. A Delicate Experiment. The Harvard Business School 1908–1945, Boston, 1987; Reinert Erik. Schumpeter in the Context of Two Canons of Economic Thought 11 Industry and Innovation, 2002.

[7]Intellectual Innovation at the Harvard Business School. A Strategy. Division of Research, Harvard Business School, 1991. P. viii.

[8]Это выражение употребляет сам Пол Кругман.

[9]Serra Antonio. Breve trattato delle cause che possono far abbondare Toro elargento dove non sono miniere. Naples, 1613. Фонд Другого ядра профинансировал перевод этой книги на английский язык, который скоро должен выйти.

[10]В 1848 году Маркс даже выступал в защиту свободной торговли, потому что она должна была ускорить начало революции (сделав бедные страны еще беднее).

[11]Carpenter Kenneth. The Economic Bestsellers Before 1850. Kress Library of Business and Economics, Boston, 1975, текст доступен в электронном виде по адресу http: //www.othercanon.org

[12]Этот процесс беспокоит многих библиотекарей в США.

[13]Grundriss der Staatswirtschaft zur Belehrung und Warnung angehender Staatswirte. Frankfurt, 1782.

[14]Не переплетенные книги объемом до 90 страниц.

[15]Это означает, что Соединенным Штатам было суждено разбогатеть, несмотря на такие «ошибки», как поддержка индустриализации. Ранние обзорные статьи на эту тему см.: Catching-up From Way Behind — A Third World Perspective on First World History // Fagerberg Jan, Verspagen Bart, Tunzelmann Nick von (eds). The Dynamics of Technology, Trade, and Growth, Aldershot, 1994; Competitiveness and Its Predecessors — a 500-Year Cross-National Perspective’ // Structural Change and Economic Dynamics. 1995. Vol. 6; The Role of the State in Economic Growth // Journal of Economic Studies. 1999. Часть этих вопросов затрагивает мой коллега Чан Ха-Джун в своей книге «Kicking Away the Ladder: Development Strategy in Historical Perspective (London, 2002).

[16]Смитис также написал некролог на смерть Шумпетера в журнале «Quarterly Journal of Economics».

[17]Эта теория не исключила бы Марксова понимания экономического развития. Мой подход к Марксу развился, как я обнаружил, до уровня подхода к нему большинства немецких экономистов сто лет назад: анализ прекрасный, но практические рекомендации никуда не годятся. В предисловии в японскому изданию «Теории экономического развития» ярый консерватор Шумпетер писал, что его анализ весьма похож на анализ Маркса.

[18]Письмо процитировано по: Niccol& #242; Machiavelli. Tutte le opere storiche e letterarie. Florence, 1929.

[19]Hobson John. The Eastern Origins of Western Civilisation. Cambridge, 2004; Bernai Martin. Black Athena: The Afroasiatic Roots of Classical Civilization, New Brunswick, NJ, 1991.

[20]Pommeranz Kenneth. The Great Divergence: China, Europe, and the Making of the Modern World Economy. Princeton, 2000.

[21]Edward Said. Orientalism, New York, 1978.

[22]Даймонд Джаред. Ружья, микробы и сталь. М.: ACT, 2004.

[23]Эти вопросы обсуждаются в статье Патрика О’Брайена «Historiographical Traditions and Modern Imperatives for the Restoration of Global History» в журнале «Journal of Global History». 2006. Vol. 1. Issue 1.

[24]О важности географического и климатического разнообразия для развития цивилизации в Андах см.: Murta John. La organizaci& #243; n econ& #243; mica del estado inca. M& #233; xico, 1978; and subsequent works.

[25]Слово emulation в нашу семью принес мой сын Софус. Эмуляции посвящена диссертация, которую он пишет в Кембриджском университете об истории экономической мысли и политики. Это слово прекрасно описывает все то, что я раньше называл бенчмаркингом (benchmarking).

[26]Hont Istvan. Jealousy of Trade: International Competition and the Nation State in Historical Perspective. Cambridge, Mass., 2005.

[27]Wolff Christian. The Real Happiness of a People under a Philosophical King Demonstrated; Not only from the Nature of Things, but from the undoubted Experience of the Chinese under their first Founder Fohi, and his Illustrious Successors, Hoam Ti, and Xin Num. London, 1750; Johann Heinrich Gottlob von Justi. Vergleichungen der Europ& #228; ischen mit den Asiatischen und & #228; ndern vermeintlich Barbarischen Regierungen. Berlin, 1762.

[28]В то время валютой служили золотые и серебряные монеты, и нехватка валюты — которая в том числе исчезала из обращения, потому что оседала дома у граждан в виде накоплений — считалась серьезной проблемой.

[29]Galiani Ferdinando. Dialogues sur le Commerce des Bleds. Milan, 1770/1959.

[30]Об этом хорошо написано в статье Cimoli Mario, Dosi Giovanni, Nelson Richard, Stiglitz Joseph. Institutions and Policies Shaping Industrial Development: An Introductory Note, Working Paper, Initiative for Policy Dialogue. Columbia University, 2006.

[31]Речь идет о типично колониальной экономической политике. Иногда центральная страна нестандартно относится к территориям, являющимся ее политическими колониями, и пытается стимулировать в них рост. Пример такого отношения — отношение Норвегии к Пуэрто-Рико, начавшееся при политическом лидере Луисе Муньосе Марине и губернаторе Рексфорде Тагвелле (1941–1946).

[32]Paul Krugman. Ricardos Difficult Idea. Why Intellectuals Don’t Understand Comparative Advantage 11 Gary Cook (ed.). The Economics and Politics of International Trade. Vol. 2. Freedom and Trade, London, 1998. P. 22–36.

[33]William Ashworth. Customs and Excise. Trade, Production and Consumption in England 1640–1845. Oxford, 2003. P. 382.

[34]См.: Let States be Entrepreneurs//Newsweek. 2006.13 March. P.72.

[35]Кругман процитирован no: Melvin Reder. Economics. The Culture of a Controversial Science. Chicago, 1999.

[36]Antonio Genovesi. Storia del commercio della Gran Brettagna. 3 vols. Naples, 1757–1758. Vol. 1. P. 249.

[37]Стоит отметить, что до Адама Смита практически вся экономическая наука была основана на метафорах из биологии. Дискуссию о метафорах см.: Philip Mirowski. More Heat Than Light: Economics as Social Physics, Physics as Nature’s Economics, Historical Perspectives on Modern Economics. Cambridge, 1989; Non-Natural Social Science: Reflecting on the Enterprise of More Heat than Light / Neil de Marchi (ed.). Durham, 1993; Sophus Reinert. Darwin and the Body Politic: Sch& #228; ffle, Veblen, and the Shift of Biological Metaphor in Economics // The Other Canon Foundation and Tallinn University of Technology. Working Papers in Technology Governance and Economic Dynamics. 2006. No. 82. URL: http: //hum.ttu.ee/tg

[38]Jones Richard. An Essay on the Distribution of Wealth. London, 1831.

[39]Rae John. Statement of Some New Principles on the Subject of Political Economy, Exposing the Fallacies of the System of Free Trade, and of Some Other Doctrines Maintained in the @Wealth of Nations’. Boston, 1834.

[40]Альфред Маршалл был основателем неоклассической экономической науки, развившейся в сегодняшнюю стандартную теорию.

[41]Другой канон был задуман как исходная точка экономики реальности и профессиональная сеть инакомыслящих экономистов.

[42]Разумеется, марксистская экономическая теория включала и многое другое, в частности тонкий анализ технического прогресса и экономического развития. Однако метод переворачивания социальной пирамиды оказался слишком простым решением для общественных проблем, описанных Марксом. Можно также утверждать, что ошибочные идеи Маркс почерпнул у Давида Рикардо; см.: Foxwell Herbert. Foreword to Anton Menger, The Right of the Whole Produce of Labour. London, 1899.

[43]В конце Второй мировой войны традицию Другого канона продолжали два течения: институциональная экономика в США и разнообразные исторические школы в Европе, самая известная из которых — немецкая школа.

[44]Интервью в газете: Dagens N& #230; ringsliv. 1994. 31 December.

[45]Цит. по: Ferguson John М. Landmarks of Economic Thought. New York, 1939. P. 142.

[46]Обсуждение экономической науки как зарождающейся религии см.: Nelson Robert H. Economics as Religion: From Samuelson to Chicago and Beyond. University Park, 2001.

[47]Можно утверждать, что убывающая отдача — единственный элемент стандартной экономической теории, основанный на факте реальной жизни. Далее мы увидим, однако, как невнимание к этому фундаментальному механизму привело к экономической катастрофе в Монголии.

[48]Стандартная экономическая наука различает виды экономической деятельности в том смысле, что они могут быть более или менее капиталозатратными. Если бы эта мысль прозвучала в теории международной торговли, можно было бы показать, как страны, специализирующиеся на экономической деятельности, потребляющей меньше капитала, окажутся беднее остальных стран (исходя из того, что капитал — это основной источник роста). Однако это невозможно, поскольку теория международной торговли основана на трудовой теории ценности и не учитывает капитальных инвестиций. Такое жонглирование разными наборами предпосылок в разных частях теории — главная черта стандартной экономической науки. То, что выдается за связную теорию, на деле является сборной солянкой из разрозненных подходов.

[49]Эту идею я почерпнул на конференции, проходившей в Нотр-Дамском университете в 1991 году.

[50]Единственное исключение — статья Роберта Лукаса. Lucas Robert. On the Mechanics of Economic Development // Journal of Monetary Economics. 1988. Vol. 22. P. 3–42.

[51]Шумпетер Йозеф. История экономического анализа: в 2 т. СПб., 2001. Т. 1. С. 250.

[52]Ernst Ludwig Carl. Trait& #233; de la Richesse des Princes, et de leurs Etats: et des Moyens Simples et Naturels Pur y Parvenir. Paris, 1722-3.

[53]См., в частности: Маршалл Альфред. Принципы экономической науки. М.: Прогресс, 1993.

[54]Bhagwati Jagdish. Free Trade Today. Princeton, 2002. P. 22.

[55]См. особенно приукрашенную версию истории в: David Warsh. Knowledge and the Wealth of Nations. A Story of Economic Discovery. New York, 2006.

[56]Babbage Charles. On the Economy of Machinery and Manufactures. London, 1832. P. 84.

[57]Lane Frederick. Profits from Power. Readings in Protection-Rent and Violence-ControlIing Enterprises. Albany, 1979.

[58]Tilly Charles. Coercion, Capital and European States AD 990-1992. Cambridge, 1990.

[59]Kaldor Nicholas. Alternative Theories of Distribution 11 Review of Economic Studies. 1955–1956. Vol. XXIII. No. 2. Reprinted in Essays on Value and Distribution. Glencoe, 111. 1960. P. 211.

[60]Об этом пишет кембриджский экономист Герберт Фоксвелл в работе, которую я уже цитировал. См. также некролог, написанный Кейнсом, о Фоксвелле в жу<

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