Replacement of the equipment with new types of UECN.

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Presently, more than half of all UECN are the units of UECNM type which were manufactured in accordance with the technical conditions (TU) of 1997 and 1998. Their operational capacity is sustained by maintenance companies (former stations for industrial servicing of electrical submersible units– BPO EPU) by means of purchasing of spare parts and repairing on different complexity levels. It should be noted that spare parts are supplied not only by the major UECN manufacturers, but also by many small companies which have changed their activity area and are now trying to solve their financial problems on account of wealthy oil industry customers. This fact, as well as multiple use of certain UECN modules and parts (shafts, cases, end parts, sometimes diffusers and so on) surely decreases the capital costs, but also significantly reduces the time between failures and thus results in increase of the operational costs (costs for the underground well repair, power supply costs) and in losses of oil production volumes. Estimations show that reliability of centrifugal pumps repair units is lower than that of the new ones by 12-18%, which totals 33-50 days, providing that the average time between failures is 280 days. At the average oil production rate of 5 t/day this can cause oil underproduction of 165-250 tons. Therefore, it will be profitable for oil specialists to replace most old equipment with new one. The amount of annually replaced equipment can be estimated at 3.5-4 thousand complete units (not accounting the cables).

2. Improvement of the quality of selection and operation of UECN.

According to the oil industry statistics, failures caused by the “wrong selection of equipment” amount to 5 - 10%, but nevertheless, this stage is very important. A large amount of UECN units break down due to the failure of the units electrical systems, this mainly depends on the right choice of the unit for a specific well and the quality of performance of the system “formation-well-pumping unit” (“P-S-NU”). Presently, both these tasks can be solved by the up-to-date so-called “intelligent” control stations (SU). Such SU’s have the algorithms for selection of the optimal equipment type and the optimal operational mode of the “P-S-NU” system. Of course, such SU’s are much more expensive than the widely-used old ones such as SGS, but the variety of the new station functions is many times wider. They include: soft ramping up to the required operation mode (soft start-up), improved reliability of protection from overload and underload, possibility to change the submersible pump rotational speed (both manually and using the pre-set algorithms or by changing the field data). Use of the modern SU’s even in combination with the standard asynchronous submersible electric engines enables to significantly enhance the UECN production capacity, and the use of thyratron submersible engines enables to dramatically enhance the areas of application of centrifugal pumps. Thyratron engines have very comfortable and flexible characteristics (rotation torque practically does not depend on the rotation speed), high efficiency coefficient, low overheating temperature, high dependency of the operating current on the engine load. All this allows to use this drive type for complicated wells with high temperature of the formation fluid and unstable influx. Though oil specialists often chose to upgrade the existing equipment (for instance, equipping of the SGS-series stations with soft start-up modules), the specialists engaged in production have already appreciated the advantages of the intelligent control stations, and the demand for such equipment can total approximately 1500-1800 units per year. Demand for thyratron electric engines is not so high yet, mainly because of the insufficient experience of use of such engines in combination with their own control stations. Apparently, it may take the oil men another 2 or 3 years to get used to this type of equipment, and after this there may occur a true boom of usage the units with electrical thyratron engines. In this case the annual consumption of thyratron engines of different types and sizes can exceed 3-4 thousand units.

Use of thyratron engines and intelligent control stations allows not only to improve the operational conditions of the “P-S-NU” system, but also to turn to new oil production technologies, for example to the formation sway system – dynamic impact on the formation by means of periodical change of the pumping unit production rate. These technologies according to the authors’ original ideas allow to reduce significantly the number of types and sizes of electrically-driven centrifugal pumps by means of improvement of their performance characteristics. Not rejecting this suggestion it has to be noted that still in this case there will be demand for a wide range of the various design pump types and sizes: corrosion resistant, wear-proof, pumps for pumping of liquid containing large quantities of free gas and so on.

In this connection it is possible to consider that the demand for centrifugal pumps will increase despite of the improvement of their reliability and increasing of their production capacities. Generally, the situation related to demand for electrically-driven pumping units looks very attractive for the manufacturers of such type of equipment. In fact, amortization period of UECN (without cable) is 3.5 – 4 years (while for beam units this figure is 12.5 -15 years), the cable lines hardly ever “run” to the well more than two times (which means that even if the average time between failures is 360 days, a cable line has to be replaced once in two years), moral tear and wear of the control stations and telemetry system can be defined as 4-5 years. That is, during 5 years all UECN well equipment must be replaced at least once. In this case at least 10-12 thousand pumps and submersible electric engines, 12-15 thousand cable line sets, up to 5 thousand control stations have to be upgraded annually. This includes permanent work of maintenance service teams that rehabilitate the working capacities of the existing oil field equipment. That is why there is no threat of unemployment for the personnel of the companies which design, manufacture, maintain and repair the electrical centrifugal pumping units for oil production.

Text 4 Bosphorus By-Pass & Central Asia

Russia is very keen to get agreement for the long delayed construction of the Burgas-Alexandroupolis oil pipeline. The pipeline is one of two planned to take most oil tankers out of the congested Bosphorus. Freeing the Bosphorus from oil tankers, while providing sufficient alternative routes, is a critical element of Russia’s plans to expand external trade beyond extractive industries and to allow it remain a key player in the Central Asian energy sector. It is also a necessary pre-condition for the planned expansion of the CPC pipeline that carries Caspian oil via Novorossiisk.

Almost 2 million barrels of oil transit the Bosphorus each day. Most of that is Russian oil but there is also a significant volume of Caspian oil transiting via Russian ports.

Russia cannot grow the volume of other exports via Novorosiisk – required as part of the plan to create a more diversified economic base - and other Black Sea ports, without removing the bulk of the oil traffic

Russia also wants to accommodate significantly more Caspian oil via Novorosiisk but cannot do so until the bypass pipes are built. If it does not accommodate the extra oil volume from the Caspian then Moscow’s position of influence in the region will be further undermined.

The Burgas-Alexandroupolis pipe has a planned capacity of 1.0 million barrels per day and the second pipe, via a Turkish route, has a planned capacity of 1.5 million barrels. In aggregate, both pipes would take all the existing oil and most of the planned Caspian (CPC) expansion.

Greece is just as keen to build the pipeline, as it needs the transit fees and the economic boost from building the oil-loading terminal. Bulgaria’s stated objection is because of environmental concerns. In reality, its objection has more to do with the government’s wish not to increase economic ties with Russia as it looks to build stronger ties with the EU. The economic crisis across the EU, and the solvency problems in Eastern Europe in particular, has reduced the possibility of the latter while making the former economic pragmatism.

Moscow has a better chance of pushing forward with the by-pass pipeline now than at anytime in the past. In mid 2009, the Bulgarian delegation wouldn’t have even considered coming to Moscow.

The Bosphorus is the only way for ships from Russia’s Black Sea ports (plus those from Ukraine, Georgia, Romania and Bulgaria) to exit into the Mediterranean Sea. Currently the channel accommodates over three times the number of vessels transiting the Suez Canal. But, unlike Suez and the Panama Canal, Turkey cannot charge transit fees. The use of the Bosphorus is governed by the 1936 Montraux Convention, which set free passage for all commercial vessels. Turkey can, however, control the flow of vessels for safety reasons.

The big problem is the almost 2.0 million barrels of oil carried through the channel each day, most of which is from Russia’s Novorossiisk Seaport. In the past, Turkey has regularly held up the oil tankers for weeks citing safety factors.

The political relationship between Moscow and Ankara is clearly much improved under Erdogan’s government but the environment issue about oil tankers using the Bosphorus is very sensitive and needs to be resolved. The oil tankers need to be removed from the channel. That is partly because of the risk of an accident that could block Russia’s Black Sea exit route for a very long time and partly because Russia wants to send more non oil traffic through the route. It cannot do that until the oil tankers are removed or, at least significantly reduced in number.

The proposed project is to construct an oil pipeline from Burgas, on Bulgaria’s Black Sea coast, to Alexandroupolis, on Greece’s Mediterranean coast. The total length of the proposed pipe is 280 kms. The planned initial capacity is for 700, 000 barrels per day, rising eventually to 1.0 million barrels per day. The project was agreed between Russia, Bulgaria and Greece in 2007 and a deal to construct the pipe was signed in 2008. Construction was due to start in October 2009 and with a scheduled completion date in 2011.

The project never started. The proposed terminal and pipeline quickly became a contentious issue in Bulgaria and local governments on Bulgaria’s Black Sea voted against it. The current Center-Right government in Bulgaria won the July 2009 election and one of its promises was to review the proposed, and very unpopular, pipeline. In June of this year, Bulgaria’s prime minister unexpectedly said that his government was “giving up” on the project. Some phone calls later (from Brussels and Moscow for sure) and the government quietly backed off from this comment.

In addition to the proposed Burgas-Alexandroupolis route, Russia has also agreed to supply oil to a second by-pass pipeline. This route will take oil across Turkey from the Black Sea town of Unye (previously it was to have come via Samsung but the terminal has been moved) to the country’s main oil terminal at Ceyhan on the Mediterranean. This pipeline will be 550 kms long and has a planned capacity of 1.5 million barrels per day. The main partners in the project are ENI and local company Calik Enerji. Last October, the leaders of Italy, Turkey and Russia signed a memorandum to allow Transneft and Rosneft join the project. According to media reports, the work has already started and the expected completion date is in 2012. Full capacity can then be reached by 2015.

While the Unye-Ceyhan pipeline – at full capacity - would take the bulk of the current oil volume out of the Bosphorus, it would not allow for any additional oil volume. Russia wants to remain a key transit country for Caspian oil and that means it has to allow for the planned doubling of the CPC pipeline capacity. Otherwise that oil might go either along a new pipe built in parallel to the existing Baku-Ceyhan pipeline or across a new pipeline to China.

CPC plans to double the current capacity of its Russian routed pipeline to 1.4 million barrels by 2014. For that to happen, both the Burgas-Alexandroupolis and the Unye-Ceyhan pipes will have to be operational. Otherwise the Bosphorus will be even more congested; delays longer and greatly limit Russia’s ambition to grow other exports from Novorosiisk.

Text 5 Race for the Arctic

Russia and Norway in September signed an agreement to end a 40-year dispute over sovereignty of a 175, 000 sq km block that straddles the Barents Sea and the Arctic Ocean. It is widely held that the Arctic region is the next, if not final, energy frontier and, below the seabed, lies untold energy and mineral riches. How much is there? The short answer is that nobody knows. But that of course does not stop lots of speculation about recoverable resources and that, in turn, has led to both this agreement and Moscow’s further attempt to persuade the UN to recognize its sovereignty over a much greater section of the Arctic based on the Lomonosov Ridge. Norway is now more likely to support Moscow’s claim at the UN.

Russia estimates that the recoverable resources in the block that is to be carved up today may equal the equivalent of 39 bln barrels of oil or 6.6 trillion cubic meters of gas or a combination of both. Others say it is less while some speculate it is greater. The point being that proper exploration work was not possible until last September’s agreement was reached. It is expected that Norway and Russia will cooperate, probably a JV between StatoilHydro and Gazprom, on an exploration programme to answer that question. The results of that exploration will also be very important for what happens elsewhere in the Arctic region. Disappointing results will cool enthusiasm for exploration in the Arctic and give the environmentalist lobby a breathing space. Results that confirm the existence of a large volume of energy riches will trigger an energy race.

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